Starbucks (SBUX) remains focused on finally cracking the code on the afternoon business.
New insight: The afternoon business has considerable runway for growth, analysts say. The midday and afternoon dayparts generate $11 billion in sales after 11:00 a.m., Starbucks said in an April blog post.
The company launched new energy drinks — more formally known as Refreshers — in April to get the ball rolling on turning the afternoon corner. But more is on tap.
In a new note on Wednesday that came after a recent meeting with Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol and investors, Bernstein analyst Danilo Gargiulo shared these insights:
Management outlined a pipeline of four incremental platforms for the refresher category alone — new color (blue launching imminently), sparkling, zero sugar, and blended — with each expected to provide a layer of incrementality over the next several quarters.
Management was candid that transaction attachment with food in the afternoon is limited and that a meaningful food uplift requires supply chain improvements that are not yet fully in place. The core issue: only ~60% of U.S. stores are on a daily replenishment cycle, while others operate on a roughly 72- hour cadence — too slow to support fresher, lower-velocity food items like small bites consistently. That said, investors view positively the breadth of options that management shared … we noted down: protein, fiber, snackable/bites, chicken, steak but we are sure we missed a few. Notably, management shared that the food platform can be executed with existing ovens and kitchen layout.
Starbucks in 2026: Starbucks took a big step in its most recent quarter in proving to Wall Street that the focus on restaurant basics is beginning to work. The company reported fiscal second quarter sales growth of 8% to $9.5 billion. Earnings of $0.50 beat analyst forecasts for $0.43.
The performance was fueled by a resurgence in customer traffic — particularly in North America, where comparable store sales jumped 7.1%. Transactions for the region increased at their strongest rate in three years. A blemish on the results: Investments in store hours, training, and wages pressured operating margins in North America by 170 basis points year over year.
The quarter’s success can be tied back to Niccol’s “Back to Starbucks” strategy, aimed at improving line speed and mobile ordering. The company has also released new menu items more thoughtfully, including “energy refreshers” and matcha teas targeted to the afternoon crowd.
Starbucks said global and US same-store sales for its current fiscal year are expected to increase by at least 5%. Previous expectations were for a 3% increase. The company also raised its forecast for adjusted earnings per share to a range of $2.25 to $2.45, up from $2.15 to $2.40 previously.
