SBI shares have lost momentum since hitting their 52-week high of Rs 1,235 on the NSE. The stock rallied 60% between May and February, outperforming the sector and most of its PSU bank peers. But its underperformance is not an isolated event as domestic markets have had a rough ride in 2026, so far. While Nifty and Bank Nifty are down 10% year-to-date, the sectoral benchmark Nifty PSU bank has declined over 5% in this period.
After the state-lender reported its quarterly earnings, the Street responded negatively, worried about the margins. The country’s largest PSU bank saw its net interest margins (NIMs) contract both year-on-year and sequentially, while net interest income (NII) declined 1.4% quarter-on-quarter. SBI also reported a fall in operating profit for Q4FY26.
The operating profit stood at Rs 27,704 crore, falling 16% YoY and 11.5% QoQ versus Rs 31,286 crore in Q4FY25 and Rs 32,862 crore in Q3FY26.
The PSU lender’s net interest income (NII) stood at Rs 44,380 crore, sliding 1.35% QoQ. The NII, which is the difference between interest earned and interest expended, rose 4% YoY.
Commenting on the current trends, Dr. Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer from Master Capital Services said selling pressure in SBI followed its latest quarterly results, with the stock slipping sharply from the Rs 1,100 zone. “Although the bank continues to report strong overall profitability and stable asset quality, investors appeared concerned about pressure on margins and slower earnings momentum going ahead. The sharp decline in the stock reflects profit booking after a strong rally seen over the past year,” he said.
The public sector lender reported a standalone net profit rose 6% YoY to Rs 19,684 crore in the fourth quarter. The same stood at Rs 18,643 crore in the last year’s quarter. The profit beat the analysts’ estimates of Rs 18,898 crore.SBI’s Q4FY26 earnings missed estimates on the back of a collapse in margins despite healthy growth on both sides of the balance sheet and a strong fee income profile, said HDFC Securities in a note, echoing a similar sentiment.
The loan book grew 17% YoY continuing to outpace the system, led by the corporate and overseas segment but deposit growth of 11% YoY raises liquidity risks.
Brokerage view
HDFC Securities expects SBI to continue benefiting from productivity and efficiency gains along with stable asset quality, helping sustain RoA at around 1.1%. It reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a revised target price of Rs 1,195 and maintained SBI as its top pick among PSU banks.
The brokerage further noted that asset quality improved across segments and credit costs moderated despite a slight uptick in gross slippages.
Axis Securities believes SBI remains well-placed to deliver healthy medium-term earnings growth supported by steady credit expansion, improving fee income and stable asset quality. While margins saw some pressure in Q4, the brokerage highlighted management’s confidence in sustaining domestic NIMs near 3% through a better asset mix, stronger CASA mobilisation and lower reliance on expensive bulk deposits.
Axis Securities also pointed to multi-decade low asset quality stress levels across domestic and overseas portfolios and expects the transition to the Expected Credit Loss framework to remain smooth. It further expects improving operational efficiency and rising cross-sell intensity to support profitability, enabling SBI to sustainably deliver around 1% RoA through the cycle.
What charts suggest?
Decoding the charts, Dr. Singh said the SBI chart has turned weak from the near term perspective as the stock has broken below key short-term support levels, while RSI has moved close to the oversold zone, indicating bearish momentum is still dominant. Rising volumes during the fall suggest institutional selling as well.
In his view, SBI’s strong fundamentals, healthy loan growth, improving balance sheet quality, and strong leadership within the banking sector augur well for the stock’s prospects. The Rs 960 area now becomes an important support zone, while recovery above Rs 1,000 could help sentiment stabilise again, he added.
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)
