Profit before tax for the quarter stood at Rs 14,627 crore, up 12% from Rs 13,070 crore a year earlier, reflecting steady operating performance despite cost pressures. Total income rose 8% to Rs 51,618 crore during the quarter.
EBITDA grew 12% to Rs 17,917 crore, while margins improved to 39% from 36% in the corresponding period last year, indicating stronger operating leverage.
Revenue growth was mainly driven by higher realisations, even as sales volumes remained largely unchanged. Average realisation per tonne rose 6% YoY to Rs 2,290, while total sales volume slipped around 1% to 198.83 million tonnes.
Coal India share price: Should you buy, sell or hold?
Jefferies retained its Buy rating on Coal India with a target price of Rs 500, an upside of 10%. The brokerage stated improving earnings visibility and supportive global coal trends as major factors for the raised target price.
The Wall Street major noted that international thermal coal prices remained rangebound at $95-$115 between January 2025 and February 2026, but have since rallied about 18% from mid-February. Higher global prices are expected to support domestic e-auction realisations, with Jefferies building in e-auction prices of Rs 3,000-Rs 3,200 for FY27-28, compared with Rs 2,907 in the March quarter.
Jefferies has raised its FY27-28 EPS estimates by 2-4%. After a 12% decline in EPS over FY24-26, the brokerage expects earnings to recover, projecting a 5% EPS CAGR over FY26-28.Coal India is currently trading at around 9.3 times FY27E adjusted price-to-earnings, excluding stripping activity adjustments, which is broadly in line with its long-term average of 9.2 times. The stock also offers an attractive dividend yield of about 6%.
Morgan Stanley has maintained its Equal-weight rating on Coal India with a target price of Rs 410, implying a 10% downside, even as the company reported a better-than-expected quarterly performance. EBITDA came in around 6% above its estimates, while adjusted EBITDA, excluding OBR, was nearly 8% ahead of forecasts.
On volumes, FSA sales declined about 4% year-on-year but still came in ahead of estimates. E-auction volumes rose 28% year-on-year, though they remained below expectations. FSA realisations increased around 6% year-on-year, supported by a better grade mix, while e-auction realisations fell about 2% YoY.
HSBC has maintained its Hold rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 440. The brokerage said 4QFY26 earnings came in ahead of expectations, largely driven by higher other income, though restated numbers have made year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter comparisons difficult.
However, it believes elevated inventory levels could limit e-auction premiums going forward and flagged the risk of a significant cost increase if diesel prices rise. HSBC added that Coal India currently lacks near-term earnings catalysts due to an oversupplied domestic coal market, although the stock’s dividend yield continues to support valuations.
Motilal Oswal has maintained its Buy rating on Coal India with a target price of Rs 530, implying a 17% upside from current levels. Analysts expect a volume CAGR of around 4% over FY26-FY28E, with a higher share of e-auction sales likely to support net sales realisation and margins.
The brokerage also highlighted Coal India’s focus on expanding coal-washer capacity to strengthen market share in both coking and non-coking coal segments. Additionally, future expansion in coal mining operations is expected to be funded through internal accruals.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
