Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction & betting tips

Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk preview

Pegula at the Mutua Madrid Open - Day Five - Source: Getty — Pegula at the Mutua Madrid Open – Day Five – Source: Getty

Pegula defeated Katie Boulter in straight sets with a score of 6–4, 6–2, in her opening round match at the Madrid Open. The American looked steady from the baseline and controlled most of the rallies.

Marta Kostyuk’s last outing in Madrid was a solid win over Yulia Putintseva, 6–0, 6–2, showing her strong form coming into this match. She recently won the Rouen title and has carried that confidence into Madrid. Kostyuk has had better results at this event in the past, including reaching the later rounds, and she looks comfortable moving and defending on clay.

Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk head-to-head

Marta Kostyuk at the Mutua Madrid Open - Day Five - Source: Getty — Marta Kostyuk at the Mutua Madrid Open – Day Five – Source: Getty

Jessica Pegula and Marta Kostyuk have faced each other six times on the WTA Tour, with Pegula leading the head-to-head 4–2. Their most recent meeting came at Brisbane 2026, where Kostyuk won convincingly 6–0, 6–3, turning the momentum slightly in this rivalry.

Pegula’s wins in this matchup have mostly come through her consistency and control from the baseline. One of her clearer victories came in Miami, where she beat Kostyuk 6–2, 6–3 in straight sets, keeping rallies on her terms. She has also picked up wins at events like the Australian Open and Beijing, often by absorbing pace and forcing errors.

Kostyuk’s wins have come when she has taken control early and played aggressively. Her Brisbane win this year stands out, and she also beat Pegula in San Diego in 2024 with a score of 7–6, 6–1.

They have not faced each other at the Madrid Open before, and all their previous matches have been on hard courts, which makes this clay meeting a new situation for both players.

Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk odds

Players	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Jessica Pegula	-155	-1.5 (-135)	Over 21.5 (-125)
Marta Kostyuk	+118	+1.5 (-110)	Under 21.5 (-115)

Disclaimer: Odds are subject to change and may vary. These odds are sourced via BetMGM.

Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk prediction

Pegula comes into this match with a slight edge because of how stable her game is from the baseline. In Madrid, the conditions are quicker than most clay events, and that helps her take the ball early and stay in control of points.

Marta Kostyuk has the ability to disrupt that rhythm if she plays aggressively and keeps her level high. However, Pegula still looks more reliable over the course of a full match.

Pick: Jessica Pegula in straight sets

Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk tips

Tip 1: Pegula to win in straight sets.

Tip 2: Under 21.5 total games.