The 2026 Madrid Open’s women’s singles draw is out, and while certain players have been handed easy draws on paper, others’ draws look quite challenging. Aryna Sabalenka, the reigning World No. 1, enters the WTA 1000 event of the prestigious claycourt tournament on the back of withdrawing from the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix in Stuttgart due to an unspecified injury she sustained during her run to the Miami title.
Current No. 2 Elena Rybakina should be confident of her chances of making a deep run in Madrid after clinching the Stuttgart crown. Third-ranked Coco Gauff heads into the tournament having registered a quarterfinal finish in Stuttgart, with No. 4 Iga Swiatek having met the same fate.
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Let’s take a look at the biggest winner and loser as far as the 2026 Madrid Open’s women’s singles main draw is concerned.
Biggest winner: Aryna Sabalenka likely to cruise to semifinals without breaking much sweat
Aryna Sabalenka is set to begin her Madrid Open title defense in the second round having received a first-round bye. The Belarusian will lock horns against either Peyton Stearns or Lois Boisson in the second round. She has a dominant 2-0 head-to-head lead over Stearns, but is yet to face Boisson in a competitive encounter.
In the third round, Jacqueline Cristian, Moyuka Uchijima or a qualifier will face the World No. 1. Things are likely to get tougher for Sabalenka from the fourth round, where she might run into former No. 1 Naomi Osaka. However, it’s worth noting that clay is widely regarded as the worst playing surface for the Japanese.
One among Jasmine Paolini, Belinda Bencic, Diana Shnaider and Beatriz Haddad Maia will clash against Sabalenka in the quarterfinals. In the last four, the Belarusian could very well meet another former No. 1 in Iga Swiatek. The pair contested the 2023 and 2024 finals in Madrid, with the Belarusian winning the 2023 final and the Pole exacting revenge in the next one.
If Sabalenka secures progress to fifth final in the Spanish capital, she will clash against either Elena Rybakina, Coco Gauff, Jessica Pegula, Amanda Anisimova or Victoria Mboko. Out of Sabalenka’s five potential final opponents, only Anisimova boasts a winning head-to-head against the Belarusian.
Biggest loser: Elena Rybakina set to face proven clay-courters from early rounds at Madrid Open 2026
Elena Rybakina, like Sabalenka, will begin her Madrid Open campaign in the second round, where she will do battle against either Antonia Ruzic or Elena-Gabriela Ruse. Things could get complicated from the third round itself for the Kazakh, with a potential matchup against either Zheng Qinwen, Sofia Kenin or Ashlyn Krueger.
If she does manage to reach the fourth round, Madison Keys or Jelena Ostapenko will be awaiting her. Both Keys and Ostapenko are former major winners, with the Latvian in particular being a threat on clay having won several high-profile tournaments on the surface over the years, including the 2017 French Open.
In the quarterfinals, Rybakina will have to face either Amanda Anisimova, Ekaterina Alexandrova, Elise Mertens or Alexandra Eala. One of Jessica Pegula, Coco Gauff, Victoria Mboko, Linda Noskova and Marta Kostyuk will be the Kazakh’s semifinal opponent, and if she does progress to the final, it could be a face-off between her and Sabalenka.
In case the Belarusian falters earlier, Rybakina will face Iga Swiatek, Elina Svitolina, Jasmine Paolini or Mirra Andreeva in the Madrid Open final.
Edited by Sudipto Pati
